Monday, October 23, 2017

                                    A   KNOWN  UNKNOWN ?

Having long since raised WUWT's Crank Magnet Ceiling, Watts has found room for another round of  publishing the unpublishable:

A skeptic attempts to break the ‘pal review’ glass ceiling in climate modeling

Propagation of Error and the Reliability of Global Air Temperature Projections 

Guest essay by Pat Frank

 Regular readers at Anthony’s Watts Up With That will know that for several years, since July 2013 in fact, I have been trying to publish an analysis of climate model error. The analysis propagates a lower limit calibration error…

The bottom line is that when it comes to a CO2 effect on global climate, no one knows what they’re talking about...

This has not gone unnoticed:

Watt about breaking the ‘pal review’ glass ceiling

Pat Frank has a guest post on WUWT about breaking the ‘pal review’ glass ceiling in climate modeling
It’s essentially about a paper of his that he has been trying to get published and that has now been rejected 6 times. As you can imagine, this means that there is some kind of massive conspiracy preventing him from publishing his ground breaking work that would fundamentally damage the underpinnings of climate modelling.
Franks troubles , as ATTP and others have noted , stem from his own analysis, which has been well and truly fisked seven times over- andcounting

Sunday, October 22, 2017


  • Australian coal flack Eric Worrall's latest WUWT Guest essay:
    A Scottish wind farm composed of novel design floating offshore wind turbines has officially started generating power. Proponents claim the floating megastructures are cheaper than traditional turbines, and will open offshore sites too deep for traditional fixed pylon designs.
    Has triggered a militant anticlimatista :
    So. Now, after promoting (ANY publicity is publicity) the enviroprofiteers with mildly critical (or essentially neutral) articles about “renewables” almost non-stop for months (the exceptions have been relatively few), WUWT has sunk to the low it was headed for: simple promotion of “renewables” (always stated on WUWT now without ” ” and with no qualifiers, as if they truly are “renewable,” when they still cannot cover their cost of production with their un-subsidized sales revenue). 
    Such reporting is not “fair and balanced,” it is simply inaccurate — due to omitting significant key facts about “renewables” (See, e.g., (Note:  Offshore Wind has the worst ROI (and EROEI)).
    WUWT has deteriorated from this:
    to what you see in the above article. 
    And I do not fault Eric Worrall — it is clearly the editorial policy of WUWT which is driving this subtle (and, now, not subtle at all) promotion of renewables. It was one thing for that wily-but-dull writer, L. Kummer to promote AGW (promoting “renewables” is to promote AGW and its $$ sc@ms), quite another to simply promote them. 
    Thus, WUWT is no longer the powerful voice for truth and data it once was.
    And if anyone wonders in the days to come, just because I’ve been around this place for a few years, “Where is Janice?” Here’s the answer: the anti-data (about human CO2 as well as “renewables”), lukewarm, soft-sell of AGW, around here is sickening to me and I can’t stand to hang out here. Yes, I will miss many of you people, but, your presence here doesn’t make the swampy atmosphere here any more easy to take.
    And, yes, I realize our host could not care less about what I write here. Our host’s new policy of largely ignoring his supporters after they fund trips to AGU and other places and his doing nothing to address my expressed concerns 
    ...I gotta say this, before I take a break from WUWT (I don’t know for how long):
    1. I admire all of you regular commenters who are still hanging in here — you have more resilience for enduring what I described above than I do; you are fine, great-hearted, people.
    2. Our host is to be highly commended for allowing this comment to be published.
    Bye (for now, at least)!


Thanks to Breitbart's vigilant  fact-checkers,  the pesky things rarely outcrop in the work of: 

                     COMING  SOON  TO  A  GEOENGINEERING

At  least  it's  not  as  bad  as  Climate Hustle
Britain's The Independent is not amused by the Hollywood remake of Das Ark Prinzip,  then student filmaker Roland Emmerich's  deservedly forgotten  debut offering at the 1980 Berlin Green Film Festival:

Ah, the icy expanse between summer's blockbuster heat (not that this year's been particularly fiery) and Oscar season - the dumping ground of many a tragic misfire.
Which is precisely what Geostorm may be doomed to become, roping in Independence Day's producer Dean Devlin for a feature film debut that is predicted to flop hard at the box office.
The film sees Gerard Butler star as the architect behind an elaborate natural disaster defense system, which sees a series of climate-controlling satellites surrounding Earth, centered around the International CIimate Space Station.

But, is Geostorm truly the worst film of the year, especially with the (also) disastrously received The Snowman lurking in the shadows of cinema complexes everywhere?   Here's what the critics thought. 
Peter Debruge - Variety  Devlin’s ill-timed destruct-a-thon (already delayed more than a year from its intended March 2016 release) succeeds in being even more callously insensitive/offensive than our president’s response to your plight. Then again, the only thing more reliable than bad weather is bad movies, and in that respect, Geostorm is right on forecast.
Mike D'Angelo - AV Club - D+   In the tradition of KFC’s Famous Bowl—... “a failure pile”—comes Geostorm, which attempts to be every possible apocalyptic weather-based disaster movie at once.
Anna Smith - Time Out - 2/5  All in all, Geostorm is a watery blend of Armageddon and 24, with enough action to entertain on a basic level. It’ll probably be most appealing to scientists looking for a good laugh.A.O. Scott - The New York Times  ...discreetly installed in theaters without advance screenings, Geostorm uses digital technology to lay waste to a bunch of cities and hacky screenwriting to assault the dignity of several fine actors.
John DeFore - The Hollywood Reporter  ... Geostorm boils down to that classically annoying hail-mary bit of advice: Have you tried shutting it down and rebooting? Big, dumb and boring, it finds the co-writer of Independence Day hoping to start a directing career with the same playbook — but forgetting several rules of the game.

Wednesday, October 18, 2017


The nondescript Venezuelan Poodle Moth            The  Flannel Moth pussy caterpillar, Megalopyge opercularis 
The  probable  failure of  some of  President Trump's  EPA and DOE nominees to secure  confirmation  by the Senate raises an interesting structural civics question: once an adminstration's selection from  the bottom of the  pork barrel has  been  rejected, where  can  it  turn  for yet more political cannon fodder?

The answer may  lie in the reluctance of Capitol Hill time-servers to reject nominees  who  strongly resemble those who hold the  highest offices in the land. In the President's case, this  makes for a very short list. Fortunately, nature has provided the means for the administration to  extend  it  beyond  Alec  Baldwin, by  turning  to  biodiversity for new species of  nominees.

Besides the  Venezuelan  Poodle  Moth's  uncanny  phenotypic resemblence to the  Vice President, it is easily captured, as it is irresistably drawn to tiki torches. As is that  MAGA   hat-worthy Megalopygid,  the Flannel Moth  Pussy Caterpillar, the spitting image of our  Chief  Executive's hair,  both at rest, and in motion:

Both  of  these  tropical species  are  marching North  towards the District of Columbia in lock step with rising global temperatures, and may be expected to follow in the footsteps of the prickly pear cacti that colonized NewYork Harbor in the 1950's. Once there, they will soon be enfranchised to vote for Mayor Deblasio like all the other immigrants before them. It but remains for the Senate to prepare for that contingency by appointing these remarkable creatures as Acting Deputy Assistant Undersecretaries  before their relatives arrive.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017




Are Climate Deniers and Front Groups Polluting Online Conversation With Denier-Bots? 

There appears to be an increasingly sophisticated and planned effort by conservatives and polluter front groups to use “persona management” software to pollute social media outlets and website comment forums with auto-generated sockpuppet swarms designed to mislead and misrepresent real people.

Leaked emails from Aaron Barr, CEO of a federal subsidiary for HB Gary, disclose the latest efforts and technology used underhandedly for “ganging up on bloggers, commenters and otherwise ‘real’ people to smear enemies and distort the truth.”
This phenomenon was  [ not quite ] first reported by Happy Rockefeller over at Daily Kos.

Programmer Develops Twitter Bot to Troll Climate Change Deniers

Preaching the climate change gospel can be tough work, especially on Twitter. Software developer Nigel Leck got tired rehashing the same 140-character arguments against climate change deniers, so he programmed a bot that does the work for him. With citations!
Leck's bot, @AI_AGW, doesn't just respond to arguments directed at Leck himself, it goes out and picks fights. Every five minutes it trawls Twitter for terms and phrases that commonly crop up in Tweets that refute human-caused climate change. It then searches its database of hundreds to find a counter-argument best suited for that tweet—usually a quick statement and a link to a scientific source.
As can be the case with these sorts of things, many of the deniers don't know they've been targeted by a robot and engage AI_AGW in debate. The bot will continue to fire back canned responses that best fit the interlocutor's line of debate—Leck says this goes on for days, in some cases—and the bot's been outfitted with a number of responses on the topic of religion, where the arguments unsurprisingly often end up.


Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt

  • Nature Communications 8, Article number: 900 (2017)
  • doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00957-y
Published online:


Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.

Monday, October 16, 2017




is a disaster 

and not because of climate change

Film Correspondent
109 minutes/Now showing/1.5 stars
The story: After extreme weather ravages the planet, nations unite to create Dutch Boy, a global satellite system that stops the problem with missiles and energy beams. The system's architect, Jake Lawson (Gerard Butler), is fired for insubordination and replaced by his brother Max (Jim Sturgess). A malfunction's fatal consequences leads to Jake's return and a high-level conspiracy is uncovered.
The heavy-handed, old-timey feel of this disaster movie might have you thinking of Roland Emmerich, the German film-maker who directed Independence Day (1996) and its sequel, Independence Day: Resurgence (2006).
You would be wrong, but only just. Geostorm is the directorial debut of writer Dean Devlin, who is a frequent collaborator with Emmerich.
The jingoism, sentimentality and bombast in Geostorm are in the same vein as the Independence Day films, which Devlin co-wrote.
As director, Devlin's sappiness - everyone verbalises feelings as if reading a news report - is injected into a movie that recycles the climategeddon premise of Emmerich's The  Day  After  Tomorrow (2004), but with the added moisture of the skyscraper-topping waves from the same director's  2012  (2009).
Is Devlin, as some say, being retro-ironic? If so, the mask has become his face. He casts as leading man Butler, looking more like an angry shar pei than ever. ...
Butler's beard stays the same scruffy length over days in space. Sturgess sports a suit for his high-powered government job, but his mini-mullet remains. And logic be damned, because security men can apparently carry handguns on a fragile space station.
China is mentioned in the first five minutes ...but according to this movie, space belongs to the one nation manly enough to punch its way into solving the climate crisis.


The Hill reports he told a September  Veterans for Energy meeting:
“I think it’s really important for people to understand, in general terms, there is no free market in the energy industry, And anybody that gets up and says that is lying — is not, with all due respect, educated as to what the reality of the market is.”

Counterflow: Cash for Clunkers Redux

October 1, 2017   By Steve Huntoon

Remember the Cash for Clunkers program? Inefficient cars paid to go away.

The Energy Department’s directive to FERC last week is Cash for Clunkers with a twist: inefficient generators paid to stay.
The original Cash for Clunkers was an economic stimulus for new stuff to replace the old stuff. The DOE’s Notice of Proposed Rulemaking subsidizes the old stuff to stop the new stuff: a sort of stimulus in reverse. (See related story, Perry Orders FERC Rescue of Nukes, Coal.)
So we might say the DOE version is a Twisted Sister sort of twist on the original.

Bailing out the Retiring, Retired and Canceled Clunkers, and then Everyone Else

We know with certainty that the DOE proposal subsidizes the inefficient because those are the plants that will opt for the federal rate guarantee instead of market-based rates. How will this play out?
DOE says there are 34 GW in projected retirements over the next five years. Under the DOE proposal, none of that would retire and instead would go on the federal dole.
And then there’s the 71 GW that already retired over the last six years but will likely return, like “Night of the Living Dead,” for that federal rate guarantee.[1]
And how about all those canceled nuclear projects?
So we’ll have around 100+ GW of uneconomic clunkers crashing the markets, and of course crashing market prices. This will force all the economic plants that depend on legitimate market prices to join the federal dole.
Natural gas plants will do this by simply adding 90 days’ worth of oil tanks.[2]
What will all this cost consumers? DOE doesn’t even try to answer that question, but here’s one way of looking at it. First, we can assume that FERC won’t want thousands of individual rate cases for all the power plants in all the RTOs.[3]
So FERC would need some sort of standard compensation. Let’s say it adopts a cost of new generation, maybe $400/MW-day.[4] Generation in the RTOs is around 530 GW; add the roughly 70 GW of retired clunkers that will return from the dead for about 600 GW on the federal dole. That’s about $88 billion annually.
So we are talking about tens of billions of dollars a year squandered first on what are, by definition, uneconomic resources, and then by paying economic resources that are rendered uneconomic by the clunkers and forced onto the same federal dole.
I can’t help noting how Republicans blasted the original Cash for Clunkers,[5]which had a one-time cost of $3 billion. The DOE version is tens of billions of dollars every year, forever.

The FERC testimony of Mike Kormos, PJM’s executive vice president at the time, directly contradicts DOE’s main claim: 
“Natural gas interruptions removed less than 5% of the total capacity required to meet demand on Jan. 7, [2014], while equipment issues associated with both coal and natural gas units made up the far greater proportion of forced outages.” (Emphasis added.)


The White House wants the EPA masthead decorated with yet more ornaments to the legal profession. Here pitching their confirmation is Powder River Basin Wyoming Senator John Barasso:
and William Wehrum Esq striking out with a drone of flabber ghastly enough to make him the beau ideal of a know-nothing nominee.

Sunday, October 15, 2017

                              THEN,  TIM  BALL  CAME  FOR

Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball
We will see an increasing number of people changing their positions on global warming as the global warming ship sinks... dredging up a sentence or two from their writings that they claim showed they knew. The level of inventiveness will astonish as rats desert the sinking ship.
I am not well disposed to any of these people ... there are none so blind as those who will not see. I admit I hold some animosity to this group as I... have suffered the lawsuits, personal attacks, death threats and career limiting denial of funding, loss of speaking opportunities, and having my wife cry.
I am glad Mr. McCarter finally saw the light as expressed in his article “Naïve scientists awakens to the politics underlying climate change”, but it is too late, too easy and self-serving... I know first-hand what Voltaire meant when he said
“It is dangerous to be right in matters where established men are wrong.”

Why didn’t McCarter act when the emails were leaked from the Climatic Research Unit...the apparent answer is that there are no consequences and he will be praised for his enlightenment and forgiven for his failures. Sorry, it is far too late, inadequate, and unworthy of praise...
He watched as others suffered attacks, lawsuits, and bullying and did nothing. As Edmund Burke said, “All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” I think that the fact they did nothing eliminates them from being called good men. McCarter apologizes for Naomi Klein ...but where was he when she was appointed to Pope Francis’ committee on global warming he wants absolution and even praises after a perfunctory mea culpa.

It is easy now as the tide is turning because Trump had the courage to cancel the Paris Climate Agreement...I can’t tell you how many people felt they were supporting me but when the opportunity to speak arose at least 95 percent of them were nowhere to be seen. and now he wants absolution for that failure.
No, I cannot accept McCarter’s pathetic apology ...his grandson was made to stand in the hallway outside his Grade six class every day for most of a month because he dared to ask questions about global warming that challenged what his teacher was saying and she knew I was his grandfather.
The only thing I can do here is quote Lutheran Pastor Martin Niemoller.
First, they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

It was a child who pointed out that the emperor had no clothes because the adults were afraid to say anything. McCarter’s. . . ‘coming out’ is too little too late... 


A reply to Dr. Tim Ball    / 

by Robert McCarter

Hi Tim,
I know that you have been the brunt of much of the blowback from your position on CAGW and I know that you are frustrated, especially from the lack of support of others. I even understand that you are using my once good name as an Everyman, that obsequious clod, ducking his responsibilities and making only a pathetic attempt to hide his neighbor from the Nazis knocking on the door. Perhaps it was my apologies that you found unctuous, for me they were a thin joke on being Canadian...I am not a meteorologist or a climate scientist... Where I work and live there is not a large scientific community and those that are there seem to be accepting of arguments from authority.