Tuesday, September 2, 2014

WE HAVE A LITTLE LIST

WHAT CAN ONE MAKE OF JOE BAST’S CLAIM THAT
 “OVER A HUNDRED SCIENTISTS” 
HAVE APPEARED AT HEARTLAND ‘INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE SCIENCE CONFERENCES’, GIVEN THAT ONLY 29 OF 100 TOP CLIMATE SKEPTICS HAVE PUBLISHED ANYTHING ON THE SUBJECT IN ANY OF THE WORLD’S TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PEER REVIEWED SCIENCE JOURNALS ?

TO BE MORE EXACT, THE TOP 104 ‘SKEPTICS’ IN TERMS OF POPULAR MEDIA EXPOSURE HAVE A GRAND TOTAL OF 90 CLIMATE SCIENCE PAPERS BETWEEN THEM, AND 75 HAVE PUBLISHED NONE


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Sunday, August 31, 2014

WITTGENSTEIN CAN BE SCARIER THAN FRANKENSTEIN


Carl Wunsch of Harvard and MIT wrote this wise note unmasking the Uncertainty Monster to NYTimes writer Andy Revkin "on the range of papers finding oceanic drivers of short-term climate variations. He began by noting the challenge just in determining average conditions":


Part of the problem is that anyone can take a few measurements, average them, and declare it to be the global or regional value. It’s completely legitimate, but only if you calculate the expected uncertainty and do it in a sensible manner.
The system is noisy. Even if there were no anthropogenic forcing, one expects to see fluctuations including upward and downward trends, plateaus, spikes, etc. It’s the nature of turbulent, nonlinear systems. I’m attaching a record of the height of the Nile — 700-1300 CE. Visually it’s just what one expects. But imagine some priest in the interval from 900-1000, telling the king that the the Nile was obviously going to vanish…






to
Variations in the height of the Nile River over the centuries.Credi
Or pick your own interval. Or look at the central England temperature record or any other long geophysical one. If the science is done right, the calculated uncertainty takes account of this background variation. But none of these papers, Tung, or Trenberth, does that. Overlain on top of this natural behavior is the small, and often shaky, observing systems, both atmosphere and ocean where the shifting places and times and technologies must also produce a change even if none actually occurred. The “hiatus” is likely real, but so what? The fuss is mainly about normal behavior of the climate system.
The central problem of climate science is to ask what you do and say when your data are, by almost any standard, inadequate? If I spend three years analyzing my data, and the only defensible inference is that “the data are inadequate to answer the question,” how do you publish? How do you get your grant renewed? A common answer is to distort the calculation of the uncertainty, or ignore it all together, and proclaim an exciting story that the New York Times will pick up.
A lot of this is somewhat like what goes on in the medical business: Small, poorly controlled studies are used to proclaim the efficacy of some new drug or treatment. How many such stories have been withdrawn years later when enough adequate data became available?
Wittgenstein framed the answer to this scary scientific conundrum as the last line of his Tractatus, something calculated to terrify politicos working both sides of K-Street and denizens of Madison Avenue : 
Whereof one does not know, thereof one must be silent.


Saturday, August 30, 2014

ALL IN THE FAMILY


VISCOUNT FINGERS DOMESTIC GODDESS AS CLIMATEGATE HACKER


Given WUWT 's absolutely fabulous sense of irony, could this be an homage to Monckton's  famously hard partying, coke-sniffing donut-frying sister-in-law, BBC domestic goddess Nigella Lawson? :


What must Nigella's dad, Global Climate Policy Foundation chairman Lord Lawson think of Monckton's cruel betrayal of his kith and kin, including Nigella's brother Dominic, the former Spectator editor seen above, and Lawson's ex son-in-law Charles Saatchi, who heads the Greens premier PR effort, the global warming Advertising Alliance? 

Friday, August 29, 2014

IF WE DON'T HANG TEN WE SHALL HANG SEPARATELY

Even as wannabe Big Kahuna Representative Dana Rohrbacher was spouting away at the Heartland Institute's landlocked Vegas climate conference, the leftover minions of New York's foremost dead whale, ex-Mayor Bloomberg, issued a ukase banning boogie boards on city beaches. Never mind Rep. Rohrbacher--this is grounds for bipartisan outrage. Were the worst fears of another political blowhard realized:
the boogie board ban could at once cripple a vital form of energy efficient public transportation, and imperil America's special relationship with Prime Minister Cameron of Great Britain:

The Editor has so far raised a war chest of $200 to protest the Big Sour Apple's disdain for America's diplomacy and civil liberties by taking bets on keeping a cigarette lit while body surfing a wave to shore. 

Matching donations are invited and may be sent to Mnestheus@paypal.com  
      <o((((((><